Unemployment – 28.11.25
The current figure for unemployment is 5.0%. The real figure, says Working Free, is 7.3%. Read WHY, here.
Unemployed at end September was 1,789mn – Total in Employment was 34,221. The calculation is 1,789 times 100 divided by 35,0981 (34,192 + 1,789) 4.972% = 5.0% (34,192 is the Total in Employment (ONS EMP01.)
Working Free contends that this figure should not be based on Total In Employment as this includes all other types of employment categories (typically the Self Employed). It should be based on 22,164 which is the total FTE (Full Time Employed) figure – as this is the figure from which the Unemployed came from. This “correct” figure is therefore 7.33%
Whilst the new figure may not be all that alarming, some other factors need to be taken into account.
- Working Free also contends that about 40% of the Total In Employment are Atypical Workers (described by Working Free as Self Drive Workers). It is these who are off loaded before permanent staff. And these do not get included in the unemployment statistics.
- Importantly, there will be many workers, particularly at senior levels and however categorised, who will be earning little and some cases, nothing. A small business entity – maybe a single person – having a bad year is the same as being unemployed. These people would be terminated ahead of formal FTE redundancies.
- Also factually out of work are those who are busying themselves planning their next steps – either another role reflecting what they have been doing and/or doing their own thing. None of this is easy – basically setting up their own independent practice – falling under the definition of Atypical Worker/ Self Driver worker or a different way of describing the same thing.
As an example – how many of the 170 redundant MPs after the last election would have been claiming unemployment pay – or describing themselves as redundant and out of work executives? Hardly any of them. Most of them will have formed a company, invented some branding and havng some strong but discreet artwork done and describe themselves as boutiques specialist advisers (or similar).
- The ONS are very frank about the measuring difficulties in their work and which were first disclosed in the middle of 2023, although unexpected variations had been observed before that time.
- Also note the role of the DWP Claimant Count. This is the actual money paid out to registered unemployed people. In recent times this has included some of the other related benefits. This makes it difficult to compare with the ONS figures. It is not the same.
- In recent times, there has been increasing interchangeability between Unemployed – Self Employed and Worklessness.
Positive comments welcome. Negative comments invaluable. See below.
Charles M Russam, Managing Director – Working Free Ltd
08081 565604 – 07785 297059. charles.russam@WorkingFree.co.uk . www.WorkingFree.co.uk
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Working Free aims to understand the major and continuing changes in the workplace. Specifically, Working Free supports the Senior Executive considering or embarking on a new career as an independent professional. Working Free works with Individuals personally and with Organisations as part of restructuring, redundancy, outplacement, career development or other mid-career transitioning arrangements and where independent working at senior levels is seen as an attractive way forward.
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